All 12 setups made less than holding the coin. We ran three common rules on four coins through the Tradenos test engine, on Binance prices from 20 July to 30 October 2026. Prices rose over those 102 days, which is the hardest market for a rule that spends time out of it.
Every test used a 1,000 USDT balance, 1-hour candles, a 3% stop loss, 0.1% fees and 0.05% slippage.
| Rule | Coin | Result | Holding | Trades won | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy the dip | BTC | +0.3% | +19.7% | 10 of 16 | −8.8% |
| Buy the dip | ETH | +11.6% | +19.8% | 13 of 19 | −6.9% |
| Buy the dip | SOL | −2.0% | +25.7% | 14 of 26 | −17.2% |
| Buy the dip | BNB | +7.1% | +23.6% | 15 of 20 | −8.6% |
| Follow the trend | BTC | +1.7% | +19.7% | 4 of 24 | −17.2% |
| Follow the trend | ETH | −13.8% | +19.8% | 3 of 31 | −28.2% |
| Follow the trend | SOL | +3.2% | +25.7% | 6 of 28 | −19.4% |
| Follow the trend | BNB | +0.1% | +23.6% | 9 of 28 | −13.3% |
| Momentum turn | BTC | −11.9% | +19.7% | 16 of 76 | −19.6% |
| Momentum turn | ETH | −22.8% | +19.8% | 15 of 86 | −30.2% |
| Momentum turn | SOL | −17.4% | +25.7% | 15 of 81 | −31.6% |
| Momentum turn | BNB | −4.2% | +23.6% | 16 of 71 | −18.1% |
The rules
- Buy the dip buys when RSI 14 crosses above 30 and sells when it crosses above 65.
- Follow the trend buys when EMA 20 crosses above EMA 50 and sells when it crosses back.
- Momentum turn buys when RSI 14 crosses above 50 and sells when it falls below 45.
What the numbers say
Trading more cost more. Momentum turn made the most trades and lost on all four coins. Each round trip pays fees and slippage twice, and a 3% stop gets hit often when a rule enters on every small move.
A high win rate wasn’t enough. Buy the dip on BNB won 15 of 20 trades and still made 16.5 points less than holding, because the bot was out of the market for much of the rise.
The one real benefit was a smaller fall. Buy the dip on ETH fell 6.9% at its worst, while holding ETH fell 21.2%. Some people would accept a lower return for that. It’s a choice worth making on purpose.
What this doesn’t prove
This is one period of 102 days in a market that went up. In a falling market the same rules could beat holding, because being out of the market helps. It says nothing about how these rules will do next. The past doesn’t predict the future.
It does show why a test should be compared with holding. A rule can make money and still be a worse idea than doing nothing.
You can run these same tests yourself on the testing page, and change the rule, the coin and the stop loss.