How the rule works
An EMA is a moving average that gives recent prices more weight. When the fast one (20 candles) crosses above the slow one (50 candles), recent prices are rising faster than the longer run, which is the simplest definition of a new uptrend. The bot buys there and sells when the fast average falls back below the slow one, or earlier if the price drops 3% below what it paid.
How it did
Every test used a 1,000 USDT balance, 1-hour candles, 0.1% fees and 0.05% slippage, on Binance prices from 20 July to 30 October 2026. Prices rose over those 102 days.
| Coin | This rule | Holding | Trades won | Worst drop | Holding’s worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | +1.7% | +19.7% | 4 of 24 | −17.2% | −12.1% |
| ETH | −13.8% | +19.8% | 3 of 31 | −28.2% | −21.2% |
| SOL | +3.2% | +25.7% | 6 of 28 | −19.4% | −24.5% |
| BNB | +0.1% | +23.6% | 9 of 28 | −13.3% | −13.5% |
It lost most of its trades. Between 3 and 9 wins out of roughly 28 on each coin. A trend rule works like that by design: many small losses when a trend fails to start, paid for by a few large wins when one does.
On BTC and ETH it fell further than holding. A crossover is slow. By the time the averages cross, part of the move is over, and by the time they cross back, part of the gain is gone.
On 1-hour candles there were too many false starts. The averages crossed about 28 times in 102 days, and most crossings led nowhere.
When it tends to work, and when it doesn’t
It suits long, steady trends, where one good trade can run for weeks. It struggles in a choppy market, where the averages cross back and forth and each crossing costs fees and a small loss.
What to change first
- The timeframe. The same rule on 4-hour or daily candles crosses far less often.
- The averages. A wider pair, such as 50 and 200, reacts later and trades less.
- An extra condition. Requiring RSI above 50 as well filters out some weak crossings.
Common questions
Does an EMA crossover strategy work for crypto?
It can catch a long trend, and it will lose often while waiting for one. In this test it barely broke even on three coins and lost on one, while holding made about 20% or more on each.
Why did it lose with so few winning trades?
Because the few wins weren’t large enough in this period. With a 3% stop loss and fees on every trade, a rule that wins one trade in six needs its winners to be several times bigger than its losers.
Which EMA lengths are best?
No pair is best everywhere. Shorter pairs react faster and trade more. Longer pairs trade less and react late. Test a few on more than one coin.
What this doesn’t tell you
This is one period of 102 days in a market that went up. The same rule can do better or worse in a different market, and it says nothing about what happens next. The past doesn’t predict the future.
You can run this test yourself on the testing page, then change the rule, the coin and the stop loss and watch the result move.